Track record

Three records, kept apart: the live model, the publisher's account, and a labeled backtest.

Trendcraft keeps three records and never combines them.

The model portfolio, live

From the first issue on October 19, 2026, the model portfolio is the targets published in each issue, priced at each close, after modeled trading costs and margin interest. It is hypothetical: a model, not an account. Every Saturday the free weekly reports it for the week and since the first issue, margin and cash versions, by month.

Every issue is dated and archived on this site, so anyone can check the record against what was published at the time, before the outcome was known. Read the weekly issues.

The publisher's own accounts

Started November 2, 2026. The publisher's own money follows the cash version (no margin) in two brokerage accounts, traded only after each issue is sent. One account holds only Trendcraft. The other also holds a managed-futures fund and cash that are not part of Trendcraft, so there only the Trendcraft positions are counted. Results are reported here by month, as a time-weighted return, so money moved in or out doesn't count as a gain or a loss. This is actual money, unlike the model and the backtest.

The first month, November 2026, closes on November 30. Its result is posted here in the first days of December, and each month after that the same way.

The backtest

Hypothetical backtest, not actual trading: the same rules run over Jun 2007 to Oct 19, 2026 made 18.6% a year, with a worst drop of 24.7%. That splits into 12.5% a year for 2007-2016 and 24.9% a year from 2017, so the recent stretch ran about twice the earlier one. The rules were chosen on 2007-2016 data; the volatility cut was added in October 2026 after looking at the whole period, so it is not tested out of sample. Before each 2x fund existed, it is simulated from its underlying market. Figures are after modeled trading costs and margin interest, before taxes.

Monthly returns (%)

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2026	+8.8	+6.8	−1.8	+4.4	+5.6	−7.5	−1.2	+2.7	+5.0	−0.3			+23.7†
2025	+7.3	−4.7	+5.4	+6.1	−1.5	+1.2	+2.2	+2.5	+10.8	+4.6	+1.1	−1.5	+38.1
2024	−0.3	+6.9	+13.0	−7.9	+4.1	−2.3	+5.5	−3.0	+6.5	−2.8	+6.0	−6.8	+18.1
2023	+3.4	−7.1	+9.8	+0.1	−2.9	+2.7	+3.1	−5.9	−1.9	+3.5	+7.0	+5.2	+16.7
2022	−1.2	+7.0	+4.6	−2.5	−1.7	−2.3	−0.7	−2.7	−1.3	+0.0	+0.1	+0.8	−0.4
2021	+3.0	+8.7	+3.9	+3.6	−5.5	−0.7	+1.3	+0.7	−4.5	+8.3	−8.1	−3.8	+5.4
2020	+6.4	−1.3	−2.2	−0.1	+4.3	+4.3	+14.8	+2.3	−6.4	+0.1	+6.2	+13.3	+47.7
2019	+3.4	−1.9	+2.2	−0.0	+6.0	+21.0	−3.4	+8.9	−8.1	+7.8	−7.3	+5.1	+35.2
2018	+6.7	−5.1	−6.9	+3.2	−0.4	+5.0	−1.4	+5.2	+1.3	−12.7	−1.8	+4.6	−4.1
2017	+3.1	+7.9	−1.5	+4.6	+13.8	−4.5	+5.7	+15.3	−6.7	+8.0	+11.2	+10.3	+87.6
2016	−4.8	+9.9	−1.8	+3.4	−2.1	+15.7	+2.9	−6.7	+1.9	−5.5	−3.7	+7.2	+14.7
2015	+5.9	−0.1	−1.4	+0.2	+0.8	−7.3	+3.2	−16.4	+1.0	+4.7	+1.9	+0.4	−8.7
2014	−3.4	+4.2	−6.2	−1.3	+7.7	+4.2	−4.8	+5.9	−3.2	+4.7	+6.6	−2.2	+11.4
2013	−3.1	−3.0	+1.1	+1.5	−1.1	−3.6	+11.3	+2.2	+1.6	+2.5	+3.7	+3.3	+16.6
2012	+4.8	+1.5	−2.2	+4.5	−2.3	+1.5	+3.6	+3.9	+1.8	−6.0	−0.4	−6.0	+3.9
2011	−1.1	+3.0	+4.2	+10.5	−7.4	−10.5	+8.6	+3.9	−3.7	+0.0	−0.5	−2.3	+2.6
2010	−6.0	+2.9	+2.6	+6.4	−3.2	+4.5	−0.8	+8.1	+5.0	+5.9	−2.3	−2.9	+20.8
2009	−6.1	−0.1	+2.9	−6.3	−2.5	−2.6	+3.9	−0.3	+5.4	−0.5	+12.0	−5.7	−1.5
2008	+1.3	+13.6	−3.5	−0.6	+4.1	+4.4	−5.9	−3.6	−3.9	−2.5	+11.0	+6.7	+20.5
2007						−3.9	+6.7	+1.7	+14.7	+17.2	−1.0	+7.0	+48.6*

Blue is a gain, orange a loss. * 2007 starts in June. † 2026 runs to October 19, where the backtest stops and the live model takes over.

The worst drops

#	Depth	High	Low	Months down	Months to recover	Back to the high
1	−20.4%	Jan 2015	Aug 2015	7	10	Jun 2016
2	−19.1%	Sep 2012	Jun 2013	9	6	Dec 2013
3	−17.1%	Apr 2011	Jun 2011	2	14	Aug 2012
4	−16.3%	Apr 2021	Feb 2023	22	10	Dec 2023
5	−15.1%	Jun 2008	Oct 2008	4	2	Dec 2008

The five deepest falls from a month-end high, how long the fall took and how long the recovery took. Month-end values, so a drop that recovers inside a month doesn't show here: on daily closes the worst drop was −24.7% (Feb 24, 2023).

Best and worst stretches

Period	Best	Worst	Worst ended	Average	Median	Lost money
3 months	+36.7%	−20.0%	Aug 2015	+4.8%	+4.3%	35%
1 year	+94.1%	−18.0%	Jan 2016	+19.2%	+16.6%	20%
3 years	+157.5%	−2.6%	Sep 2015	+63.1%	+50.1%	2%
5 years	+367.7%	+14.3%	Apr 2016	+125.9%	+114.4%	0%
10 years	+896.3%	+210.4%	Dec 2018	+433.7%	+422.5%	0%

Every rolling window since May 2007, on the same month-end basis. "Lost money" is the share of windows that ended below where they started.

A backtest is prepared with hindsight and is not actual trading. No one earned these results, and they do not guarantee future results.