How Trendcraft works

Trendcraft follows five markets with one set of written rules. After every U.S. market close it tells you what those rules say to hold the next day, and why.

The five markets

• Nasdaq-100, held through QLD
• Gold, held through UGL
• Crude oil, held through UCO
• The 7-10 year Treasury, held through UST
• Bitcoin, held through BITX

Each fund is a 2x daily leveraged ETF. Signals come from the plain, unleveraged market; positions are held in the 2x fund.

The rules in plain words

• In or out. A market is held while it closes above its 200-day average and goes fully to cash when it closes below.
• Built in steps. A new position starts at one quarter of full size and adds a quarter each time the market rises another full daily range (its 21-day average true range) above the entry. Four steps make a full position.
• Equal risk. Each market is sized to carry about the same risk, so the quiet 10-year Treasury gets the most dollars and bitcoin the fewest.
• One risk level for the whole book. The portfolio is scaled to about 25% annual volatility.
• No opinions in the trades. The commentary is opinion. The positions never are.

The full rules are on the Methodology page.

Two editions, both free

Trendcraft Daily arrives after every U.S. close: the model portfolio in a margin version and a cash version, every change and the reason for it, a signal board showing how far each market sits from its 200-day average and from its next step, and what to watch, including any change that could come at the next close. A trade calculator turns the targets into the buys and sells for your own account.

Trendcraft Weekly (free) arrives Saturday morning: the week's changes after the fact, where the book stands, the live record, and commentary on what moved markets and why.

Subscribe free. The weekly comes by default; turn on the daily at signup or in your account settings. Readers who want to help keep it going can become a supporter. It costs nothing to read.

Who it's for

People who want a rules-based trend book they can run in their own brokerage account, are comfortable with leveraged ETFs, and want the reasoning as well as the trades. If you don't use margin, follow the cash version: same markets, same steps, smaller positions.

Who writes it

Stephen Dugger. He studied political science and philosophy, worked as a Series 7 financial advisor, and now builds and trades rules-based systems. He also writes Statecraft. He follows the cash version with his own money in two brokerage accounts, and places those trades only after each issue is sent.

What it isn't

Trendcraft is a publication. Every subscriber gets the same issue. It isn't personalized advice, and the publisher never manages, trades or accesses subscriber accounts. See Disclosures.